A spike in oil prices to 10-month highs has triggered a fresh burst of inflation
London (AFP) - US stocks pushed higher Wednesday despite data showing rising oil prices pushed US inflation to its largest monthly gain in over a year in August as investors see the Federal Reserve likely to hold interest rates steady.
The consumer price index (CPI), a key inflation gauge, jumped 3.7 percent from a year ago in August, largely in line with expectations, picking up pace from July’s 3.2 percent figure.
The 0.6 percent monthly increase was also an acceleration from the 0.2 percent registered in July.
But the “core” measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices cooled last month on an annual measure, even if it rose by a more-than-expected 0.3 percent from July.
US stocks wobbled in morning trading as investors mulled over the data and its implications for the Fed, which meets next week on interest rates, but stood higher as European markets closed.
“While US prices have risen at a faster pace over the last month, stocks have nonetheless taken comfort from the drop in annual core inflation,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG.
“Overall, there is nothing here to change the Fed’s plans to hold interest rates unchanged at next week’s… meeting,” said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief US economist at Capital Economics, which expects core inflation to fall as the US economy slows.
Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at financial services firm eToro, said the CPI reading will force the Fed “to keep interest rates at a 20-year high until it sees more progress in the last and hardest yards to get inflation firmly on track towards its 2 percent target.”
The US central bank has insisted that its decision-making on monetary policy will be data-driven as it assesses a range of figures, which have for much of 2023 suggested that more than a year of tightening is having the desired effect.
That had fanned optimism that July’s hike was the last and officials would allow its measures to work through the economy and bring inflation to heel.
But a recent run of strong data, particularly on the jobs market and the services sector, has revived talk that more were on the way, with a surge in oil prices to 10-month highs adding to those concerns.
The pick-up has been fuelled by Saudi Arabia and Russia’s decision to slash output until the end of the year, while floods in Libya have hammered its ability to pump.
Oil prices rose further on Wednesday as the International Energy Agency warned that Moscow and Riyadh’s decision would cause a “significant supply shortfall”, before giving up their gains.
Both Paris and Frankfurt stocks closed lower ahead of an interest-rate decision Thursday from the European Central Bank.
On the corporate front, shares in British oil giant BP fell 2.8 percent after chief executive Bernard Looney unexpectedly resigned, having admitted to not being “fully transparent” about historical relationships with colleagues.
Looney, 53, has left after less than four years in the role, having seen the firm through a tumultuous period that included huge swings in prices owing to the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He had also come under fierce criticism from environmentalists, who have accused BP and rivals of not going far enough in transitioning away from fossil fuels.
- Key figures around 1530 GMT -
New York - Dow: UP 0.2 percent at 34,728.29 points
London - FTSE 100: FLAT at 7,525.99 (close)
Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.4 percent at 15,654.03 (close)
Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.4 percent at 7,222.57 (close)
EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.4 percent at 4,223.48 (close)
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.2 percent at 32,706.52 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 18,009.22 (close)
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.5 percent at 3,123.07 (close)
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0744 from $1.0732 on Tuesday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2495 from $1.2492
Dollar/yen: UP at 147.41 yen from 147.15 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 85.97 pence from 85.88 pence
Brent North Sea crude: FLAT at $92.07 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate: FLAT at $88.81 per barrel