Washington (AFP) - In doubling down on tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico and China, US President Donald Trump cites a lack of progress on tackling fentanyl, but analysts say the drug crisis is just one of his political goals.

“He needs a legal justification” for his tariffs, said Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

And while other trade tools typically require an investigation period, declaring an emergency over drugs also allows him to impose tariffs quickly.

Fentanyl also has “political resonance” for Trump, Meltzer told AFP.

“People, particularly in rural, poorer communities are very ambivalent, if not opposed to trade,” he said.

“Justifying trade restrictions based on something that they do see as a real threat, which is fentanyl, makes perfect sense for a lot of his voters,” he added.

In early February, Trump unveiled – then temporarily halted – sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

The pause expires Tuesday, while fresh levies are set to hit China too.

Trump has said the tariffs would proceed as drugs were pouring in at “unacceptable levels.”

Yet, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly stressed that below one percent of the fentanyl and undocumented migrants entering the United States come through the border.

Trump dismissed those figures Thursday, saying that Canada was “only apprehending one percent” and should find much more.

The United States has seen tens of thousands of deaths related to opioids like fentanyl annually, though the latest figures – for 2023 – showed a decrease from the prior year.

- ‘More uninhibited’ -

While Washington has traditionally compartmentalized its relationships, Trump “looks at relationships in their totality,” said Kimberly Breier, a former senior US diplomat during Trump’s first term.

Steel and aluminum tariffs Trump imposed in 2018 were negotiated away in US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) talks, for example.

Any fresh duties imposed this time will become part of discussions in an upcoming USMCA review, Breier said.

Trump also threatened tariffs over immigration in his first term, but “he’s more uninhibited now,” she added.

Annie Pforzheimer, a former US career diplomat, said recent presidents have had “a strong affiliation to free trade.”

Officials have avoided bringing other issues into the mix, as business ties take a long time to establish and politics have a shorter timeframe.

But Pforzheimer added: “This administration is very protectionist in nature, is more likely to see the free trade relations as something they’re willing to sacrifice.”

- ‘Just the beginning’ -

Regardless of Trump’s motives, anti-drug activists expressed strong support for his push on the issue.

For Andrea Thomas, 57, who lost her daughter to half a counterfeit pill laced with fentanyl, “this is what we’ve been asking for as impacted families for a long time.”

“We’ve been asking for a whole-of-government response,” said Thomas, who is executive director of Facing Fentanyl, a network of families impacted by the drug.

Having an economic outlook was new in her advocacy against the drug, she said.

She was at the forefront of a petition last year calling for tools like tariffs to be deployed against China over its alleged role in the fentanyl trade.

To her, stopping the flow of precursors is a critical way to save lives.

She believes the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods that took effect in February is “just the beginning.”

Washington has long accused Beijing of turning a blind eye to the fentanyl trade, an issue China denies.

- ‘Desired effect’ -

Some experts argue against the use of tariffs to tackle fentanyl.

In a recent article in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, epidemiologists said tariff-based border controls were ineffective against trafficking given the flexibility of transnational drug networks.

They warned that tariffs on neighboring countries could “undermine essential diplomatic cooperation.”

But Breier noted Trump’s tariff threats on Mexico had a “desired effect of changing behavior” with the country taking the problem more seriously.

Mexico has handed over 29 alleged drug lords, including a suspect who was said to have ordered the killing of a US agent.

This is “a turn-the-corner moment and could kick off a new era of bilateral cooperation,” she added.