Paris (AFP) - Tensions were running high Friday as France’s election campaign came to an end ahead of a historic run-off vote that could paralyse government or see the far right sweep to power.

More than 50 candidates and activists have been physically assaulted during the campaign, the shortest in modern French history, and 30,000 police will be deployed this weekend to head off trouble.

Friday was the last official day of campaigning with Saturday a day of rest before polls open on Sunday for run-off races in constituencies that failed to choose an outright winner last week.

Last month, President Emmanuel Macron plunged his country into political turmoil by calling a snap legislative poll after his centrist allies were trounced in European elections.

He explained his shock decision as a chance for French voters to reject a slide towards extremes and to reset parliament.

But, with the midnight end to campaigning just hours away, it was anti-immigration, Eurosceptic leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) that had the wind in its sails ahead of the second round.

- ‘Three years of chaos’ -

“I think we have a serious chance of having an absolute majority,” Le Pen told broadcasters CNews and Europe1 on Friday, dismissing opinion polls suggesting otherwise as an effort to demotivate her voters.

Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Unbowed (LFI) also hopes to defy the pollsters and mobilise the 16 million voters who sat out the first round.

“We can win,” he insisted.

While forecasts predict Le Pen’s party will wield the biggest bloc in the National Assembly, they also suggest it will fall short of the outright majority that would compel Macron to appoint her 28-year-old lieutenant Jordan Bardella prime minister.

Macron’s centrist supporters are expected to lose ground, leaving him without a parliamentary majority for his remaining close to three years in office.

The government of France – a nuclear-armed G7 world power, permanent member of the UN Security Council and second-biggest economy in the European Union – could be paralysed.

A far-right win could hobble French influence in Brussels, where it has been one of the main motors of EU integration, and damage Western support for Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.

Le Pen insisted that Macron could not decide on support for Ukraine against the wishes of the future head of government.

If Macron wants to send troops to Ukraine and the prime minister opposes it, “then there are no troops sent to Ukraine,” she told broadcaster CNN.

According to pollsters Ipsos and Ifop, the far-right party could secure 170 to 210 seats in the 577-seat Assembly – well short of 289, an absolute majority.

The Ipsos Talan poll for Le Monde, Radio France and France Televisions has the RN coming in just ahead of left-wing alliance the New Popular Front, on between 145 and 175 seats.

This would be “not chaos but a quagmire, a total standstill”, Le Pen said.

Outside analysts shared this concern.

The RN “is unlikely to seize power this weekend”, but France “will face at least 12 months of rancorous muddling and possibly three years of political chaos”, the Eurasia Group wrote.

On the left, leaders like Marine Tondelier of the Greens envisage a broad alliance of left, centre and centre-right to exclude the far right.

- ‘As long as necessary’ -

But it is unclear whether all the electors whose first-choice candidates were eliminated in the first round will fall in line behind an anti-RN front.

Polls suggest that only between a third and a half of centrists could switch to the left-wing alliance to fend off the far right, while perhaps two-thirds of left voters could back a centrist.

Macron ally Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, campaigning Friday in Paris, said his minority administration might remain in place after polling day for “as long as necessary”.

This might see France through hosting the Olympics from July 26 to August 11, but observers think it is unlikely to hold until the next presidential election in April 2027.

On financial markets, French stocks held steady Friday with investors expecting the far right to fail in its bid to win an absolute majority.

But analysts predicted a swift negative reaction if the far right wins power and tries to implement its costly economic programme, which includes reversing Macron’s hard-won pension reforms.

“There doesn’t seem to be much room for additional spending,” said Jeffrey Kleintop at the Charles Schwab brokerage. France could end up with the “widest deficit” amongst its peers, he warned.

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