Caracas (AFP) - Venezuelans voted Sunday between continuity in President Nicolas Maduro or change in rival Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia amid high tension following the incumbent’s threat of a “bloodbath” if he loses.

Polls suggest the vote poses the biggest threat yet to 25 years of “Chavismo,” the populist movement founded by Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chavez.

But analysts say Maduro is unlikely to concede defeat, especially in the absence of immunity guarantees, with his government under investigation for human rights abuses by the International Criminal Court.

Long queues of voters formed at several ballot stations hours before polls opened at 6:00 am (1000 GMT) on Sunday, AFP journalists observed. Polls close at 6:00 pm.

“I have been here since 4:30 in the morning, and I hope it will be a successful day,” lawyer Griselda Barroso, 54, told AFP in Caracas.

“I hope there is democracy.”

Maduro, 61, is seeking a third six-year term at the helm of the once wealthy petro-state that saw GDP drop 80 percent in a decade, pushing more than seven million of its 30 million citizens to emigrate.

He is accused of locking up critics and harassing the opposition in a climate of rising authoritarianism.

In a message published on social media overnight, Maduro urged Venezuelans to “Vote, vote, vote, and peace will triumph.”

After casting his vote in the capital on Sunday, he vowed to “make sure” the results were respected.

His contender, Gonzalez Urrutia, a 74-year-old former diplomat, called on his compatriots to turn out in large numbers “to transform your future” in what “will undoubtedly be the most important democratic expression of the people in recent years.”

“We hope and wish that everything will transpire in peace,” he said in a video posted on social media.

Maduro lags far behind Gonzalez Urrutia in voter intention, according to independent polls, but counts on a loyal electoral machinery, military leadership and state institutions in a system of well-established political patronage.

Relying on its own figures, the government is also said to be certain of victory.

With several international election observers blocked from entering the South American country at the last minute, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for all parties to “respect the democratic process.”

“The Venezuelan people deserve an election that genuinely reflects their will, free from any manipulation. The international community is going to be watching this very closely,” Blinken told reporters in Japan.

- ‘Peace or war’ -

Days before the vote, Maduro said the outcome would decide whether Venezuela enters a period of “peace or war.”

“If they do not want Venezuela to become a bloodbath, a fratricidal civil war produced by the fascists, let us guarantee the greatest success, the greatest electoral victory of our people,” he said at a rally.

The comments drew condemnation from leaders including Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who said: “Maduro has to learn: if you win, you stay. If you lose, you go.”

Concerns were further stoked when Caracas blocked the international observers, including four ex-presidents who had their plane held up in Panama on Friday.

- ‘World is watching’ -

Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, spoke to Machado on Saturday, writing on X afterward: “We are on the side of democracy. The world is watching these elections.”

On Friday, a Venezuelan NGO said the government was holding 305 “political prisoners” and had arrested 135 people with links to the opposition campaign since January.

Caracas accuses the opposition of conspiring against Maduro, whose 2018 reelection was rejected as illegitimate by most Western and Latin American countries.

Years of tough US sanctions failed to dislodge the president, who enjoys support from Cuba, Russia and China.

Venezuelans are clamoring for change.

Most live on just a few dollars a month, with the health care and education systems in disrepair and biting shortages of electricity and fuel.

The government blames sanctions, but observers point the finger at corruption and mismanagement.

About 21 million Venezuelans are registered to vote.

The government has deployed tens of thousands of security forces and enforced ramped-up border control and a prohibition on public gatherings and protests.

“While the election in Venezuela will hardly be free or fair, Venezuelans have their best chance in over a decade to elect their government,” Human Rights Watch Americas director Juanita Goebertus said this week, urging the international community to “have their (voters’) back.”